As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, many political analysts and observers are looking ahead to what will happen to the populist movement after Donald Trump. Since his rise to power in 2016, Trump has reshaped the American political landscape, making populism the central force in the political right. However, questions abound: Can populism thrive without Trump’s presence? Or will his influence over the movement wane, paving the way for a new phase of American politics? As we look beyond Trump, we need to examine the potential trajectories of populism and whether it can maintain its momentum after 2024.
The Enduring Appeal of Populism
Populism, as defined by its core principles, seeks to represent the interests of ordinary people against the elite and establishment. This ideology found fertile ground under Trump, who positioned himself as an outsider, promising to “drain the swamp” and tackle the issues that, according to him, had been neglected by traditional politicians. Trump’s populism, driven by a strong anti-establishment rhetoric and a focus on nationalism, particularly economic nationalism, resonated with millions of Americans who felt alienated by globalization, rising immigration, and the perceived loss of American cultural identity.
Despite the controversy that often surrounded his policies and rhetoric, Trump’s appeal showed that populism could not only survive but thrive in modern American politics. It was a populism fueled by frustrations over economic inequality, dissatisfaction with political elites, and fears about national identity. As the Trump era ends, these core grievances remain, and the question arises: Can populism survive without its figurehead?
The Trump Legacy and Its Lasting Influence
While Trump’s political future remains uncertain, his impact on U.S. politics is undeniable. The populist movement, centered around his personality, ideals, and approach to governance, has left a lasting legacy that may continue even after his time in office. Key aspects of his populism—anti-globalization policies, a strict stance on immigration, and a commitment to “America First” economic nationalism—have created a strong base of support that could ensure the survival of populism in the U.S., even in his absence.
However, Trump’s influence on populism has also been highly personal. His bombastic style and ability to capture media attention set him apart from traditional politicians and gave his version of populism a distinct, larger-than-life quality. Without him, will the movement retain the same degree of intensity and influence? The answer depends on whether the key components of Trump’s populism—particularly his anti-establishment rhetoric and commitment to nationalism—can be embraced by new leaders.
Some emerging Republican figures, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, have sought to harness the energy of Trump’s base without fully embodying his brash style. These potential successors to Trump’s brand of populism are eager to retain the core principles that fueled Trump’s rise, but they might need to refine the message to fit a broader electorate, especially as younger generations begin to reshape the political landscape.
The Future of Populism Without Trump
It is clear that Trump’s departure from the political stage does not necessarily spell the end for populism in America. The underlying conditions that gave rise to populism—economic dislocation, anxiety over immigration, and frustration with political elites—are still prevalent and may even become more pronounced in the future. Populist ideologies are unlikely to dissipate, but rather will be reinterpreted and adapted by the next generation of political leaders.
One potential path for the future of populism is a shift toward a more institutionalized form of the movement, one that continues to emphasize nationalism and populist policies but without the personality-driven leadership that Trump provided. Politicians who once aligned with Trump may focus on policy rather than personality, aiming to appeal to the working class through direct solutions to issues like healthcare, job creation, and immigration reform. This approach may help populism evolve into a more stable political force, rather than one that is purely reactionary and based on a singular leader.
Another possibility is the rise of a more moderate form of populism, one that focuses on addressing economic inequality and working-class concerns, but through a more inclusive lens. Such a movement could combine traditional conservative values with progressive policies, such as universal healthcare or climate action, that appeal to a broader spectrum of voters. This could signal a shift away from Trump’s combative style, allowing populism to grow beyond the boundaries of the traditional Republican Party.
Challenges to Populism’s Post-Trump Future
While populism may have a solid foundation moving forward, its future is not without challenges. The most significant hurdle could be the fragmentation of the movement itself. As different factions of the populist coalition—ranging from economic nationalists to social conservatives—seek to assert their influence, there is a risk that the movement could splinter into competing interests. Without a unifying figure like Trump, who was able to bridge these divides, populism could struggle to maintain coherence.
Another challenge could be the potential backlash from those who oppose populism’s rise. Critics argue that populism undermines democratic institutions and promotes divisive rhetoric. If Trump’s absence leads to a reduction in the populist movement’s energy or leads to internal infighting, it could open the door for more moderate political forces to regain influence. The Democratic Party, in particular, may pivot toward more centrist policies in response to the challenges posed by populism, attempting to provide an alternative to the populist message that Trump successfully delivered.
Conclusion: Can Populism Thrive Beyond Trump?
In conclusion, the future of populism in America after 2024 is far from certain, but it is clear that the movement itself is not going anywhere. Trump’s unique ability to tap into the frustrations of millions of Americans has left a lasting imprint on U.S. politics, and as new leaders rise to carry the torch, populism will likely continue to be a significant force in American politics. Whether it remains anchored in the ideals of economic nationalism, whether it becomes more moderate, or whether it evolves into a more inclusive form of populism, will depend on how well future leaders can adapt the movement to the changing needs of the electorate.
Populism without Trump is possible, but the movement will need to evolve beyond his personality-driven style to succeed in the post-Trump era. If the right political leaders can capture the core principles of his agenda while expanding the appeal to a broader base, populism could continue to shape American politics for years to come.
